2020 United States Elections Live Blog

Presidency (Electoral)

Donald Trump 232 | 306 Joe Biden (Win)

Popular Vote

47.8% | 50.4%

Senate (35/100)*

(Inc.) 50 | 46 + 2

House of Representatives (435)

205 | 222 (Cont.)

---

The blog will be updated sporadically until any new developments occur.

*Senator Bernie Sanders (VT) and Angus King (ME) coalition with the Democratic Party.

[ink.] does not endorse any presidential candidate or political party. Any opinions expressed will be of the writer.

All times in UTC.

Data from the Associated Press.

7 Nov—Bryan Carmichael

Joe Biden will be the 46th President of the United States after winning Pennsylvania.

6 Nov—Haoyang Shi

Georgia and Pennsylvania have both turned blue, with very slim margins (<0.1%) separating Biden from Trump. Trump won both states in 2016.

Votes will be recounted in Georgia. If Biden maintains his lead in any of these states, he will win the Electoral College with or without Arizona.

08:31—Haoyang Shi

[ink.] will rescind the 11 electoral votes for Arizona temporarily in light of new developments in Maricopa County. GOP-supporting pollsters are gathering outside the counting centres, obstructing the vote counts. We will notify you of the situation in Arizona and Nevada regularly.

02:21—Haoyang Shi

Senator Gary Peters has won reelection in Michigan. If the Democrats want re-control of the Senate, the North Carolina race becomes critical to their chances.

23:20—Haoyang Shi

Michigan and Wisconsin are projected for Joe Biden by very low margins. This is thanks to enormous turnout from African-American voters in the metropolitan areas of Detroit, Milwaukee, and Kenosha, spurned on by Black Lives Matter. Hillary Clinton, in addition to Pennsylvania, failed to attract as much turnout from this demographic in 2016, likely contributing to her defeat.

It is likely for Biden to win tonight's election, as only the 6 electoral votes from Nevada are needed to declare victory.

Senator Susan Collins has won Maine. It looks likely that the Republican Senate majority will prevail.

14:30—Haoyang Shi

Though the presidential race is the one attracting the most attention, I would like to bring to your attention the 35 Senate seats that are up for election, what could end the Republican 6 year-long majority in American politics. Many important decisions need to be passed by the Senate, as exemplified by the controversial nomination of Judge Amy Coney Barrett; an election of Joe Biden could push more Democrats into Senatorial positions.

• Kentucky incumbent and Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell defeated Amy McGrath in the expected result, but with an incredibly strong challenge from the opposition.

• In South Carolina, incumbent Lindsey Graham secured the tight battle against Jaime Harrison in another close race.

• John Hickenlooper flipped Colorado against incumbent Cory Gardner. Hickenlooper was an early candidate in the Democratic Presidential Primaries.

• In Alabama, incumbent Doug Jones was superseded by Tommy Tuberville.

With 6 Senate seats still up for grabs, here are some of the most important to secure.

• In Maine, incumbent Senator Susan Collins is engaged is in a tight race with Sara Gideon. In the Electoral College, the votes were awarded to Biden, but Collins' reputation is still high and popular among voters.

• Thom Tillis of North Carolina is pulling ahead from Cal Cunningham.

• Michigan incumbent Senator Gary Peters is likely expected to lose to John James.

• There are 2 elections (regular and special) in Georgia. Republicans are on top in the latter, and the special election has run to runoffs.

It looks likely that the United States Senate will remain red, unless the 6 seats aforementioned can flip Democrat. In the event of a 50-50 vote in the Senate, the vice president will deliver the tie-breaking vote.

14:08--Xiaoyao Lu

MICHIGAN IS LEANING BLUE!!!

By 0.2%.

If Joe keeps this up he's gonna win.

12:26—Xiaoyao Lu

Things are looking slightly more optimistic for Joe... time to start sweating. Biden is currently behind by 0.3% in Michigan, if he is able to turn this key state worth 16 electoral votes, as well as keep Nevada, blue territory, and Wisconsin, flipped from red which he leads by 0.7% in, he will win the election! Keep tuning in... as this will be one of the key moments in the election which will determine who wins and loses.

11:45—The Prophet

Earlier today I have been constantly favouring Trump for the election — not only has he secured those must-win states (Florida, Texas, Ohio), he even managed to take the lead by a large margin in some states that were considered to be won by Biden easily, most notable of which was Pennsylvania with 20 electoral votes, also Biden's hometown.

Yet two abrupt changes in recent hours have led me to believe that Biden would win the election — albeit not in a way that most people would expect.

1. Wisconsin (10 votes) flipped blue. A state Trump once led by over 4,0%, Wisconsin is currently being won by Joseph Biden Jr with a narrow margin of 0.2%.

2. Biden is catching up in Georgia. Although Trump is still holding a narrow lead in Georgia (2.0%) after 90% of votes have been reported, many of the uncounted votes appeared to be in urban areas like Atlanta, where the Democratic is expected to perform much stronger. NYT anticipated that Biden would win by 0.4% in Georgia after city votes, as well as mail-ins, have been reported.

With Wisconsin and Georgia in his hand, coupled by the 238 votes he has already won and another 6 safe-Dem votes from Nevada, Biden would eventually receive a total of 270 electoral votes — barely one more than enough to become the President of the United States.

Even if Biden loses either one of Wisconsin or Georgia, there would still be a small chance that he could take one of Pennsylvania, Michigan, or North Carolina.

The election is far from being over.

It would be a long night ahead.

11:05—Haoyang Shi

At a 02:30 press conference at the White House, Donald Trump prematurely declared victory in front of spectators, even before all the votes have been counted in several key swing states. [ink.] does not recognise his victory, and will confirm a definitive winner in the coming days and weeks when all votes have been counted.

Projecting Nevada for Biden, the vice president will have 32 remaining electoral seats to sway,

10:00--Xiaoyao Lu

Remaining unconfirmed states are Nevada, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Alaska, and Georgia.

Nevada: 6 Electoral votes, with 67% of all votes counted. Joe Biden is 2.1% ahead. Blue in 2016

Wisconsin: 10 Electoral votes, with 95% of all votes counted. Joe Biden is 0.3% ahead. Red in 2016

Michigan: 16 Electoral votes, with 80% of all votes counted. Donald Trump is 5% ahead. Red in 2016

Pennsylvania: 20 Electoral votes, with 64% of all votes counted. Donald Trump is a whopping 12.7% ahead. Red in 2016

North Carolina: 15 Electoral votes, with 94% of all votes counted. Donald Trump is 1.4% ahead. Red in 2016

Georgia: 16 Electoral votes, with 94% of all votes counted. Donald Trump is 2.2% ahead. Red in 2016.

Alaska: 3 Electoral votes, with 43% of all cotes counted. Donald Trump is 29.9% ahead.

Wisconsin was very recently turned blue, and is only so by .3%. Presuming both it and Nevada vote for Joe Biden, he will have 254 electoral votes, not enough to win. He will still need Michigan, Georgia, or Pennsylvania in order to obtain the necessary 270 votes to win. If he wins North Carolina, he will still need to win one of the others.

Looking tough for Joe...

09:17—Haoyang Shi

The electoral vote count has begun to stabilise, so expect the last 98 electors to make their choice after the final vote counts have come in.

The nail-in-the-coffin for the Biden campaign may come from Pennsylvania. Donald Trump has a 5% lead in the reported ballots so far. But, the ballots may come in slowly from Philadelphia County (Philadelphia) and Allegheny County (Pittsburgh), so expect a blue shift in the coming days. The same is occurring in Milwaukee and Green Bay, Wisconsin.

The Trump campaign is filing lawsuits across the nation after the election took place, as the president appears to question the integrity of the results. Once again, the final votes can only be tabulated once all mail-in and absentee ballots arrive.

06:03—Haoyang Shi

Minnesota has turned blue.

05:51—Haoyang Shi

Donald J. Trump has won Florida and Ohio. These 2 major swing states could have an important role in determining the result.

04:45—Haoyang Shi

The current most important swing states to watch are Florida, Texas, and Pennsylvania. Voting is mostly complete in the 2 former states, with Trump edging slight majorities in both. Together they are worth 57 electoral votes, which could be detrimental to Biden's campaign. Pennsylvania, where Biden spent today rallying, is trending away from him. However, the former vice president still has a considerable lead in the Electoral College.

The House of Representatives is trending red. The larger organ of Congress, definitive control is needed for the Democrats to pass any policy.

01:56—Laura Hoefnagels

The current US elections are putting the whole world on edge, these elections may have a very large impact on the world of the future. Currently, candidate Donald J. Trump from the Republican party is in the lead with 50.2% to 48.7%. However, the opposing candidate Joe Biden from the democratic party still has a chance. The emailed votes have not been counted yet and according to statistics, many of the democratic citizens of the US vote over email. Many people from all over the world are awaiting the results in Florida since which candidate wins Florida will have quite an advantage. Let's keep waiting for the final results.

01:03—The Prophet

Both candidates took many of their solid states, with Oklahoma, Mississippi, Alabama, Tennesee and South Carolina going to Trump, and Illinois, Virginia, Maryland, Delaware and New Jersey going to Biden.

00:16—Haoyang Shi

The first results are beginning to come in. Kentucky reported 53.7% of its total votes to Donald Trump, narrowly awarding its 8 electoral votes to the president. Elsewhere Vermont has awarded its 3 to Joe Biden.

Do note that, if in many states there is a Republican majority, the Democratic demographic often tabulate their votes at a later time. With such a small percentage of the votes in, it is impossible to determine whether they are winning or not.

14:56—Clara Yang

Today is Tuesday the 3rd of November; the grand day of the US election is today. Many all around the globe are paying close attention to the end result of this election. So in this short election update, I will give you a brief overview of what statistics are essential in this election and the changes that took place just recently.

Some of the states that can potentially swing the presidential election are Florida, Georgia, Arizona, Iowa, North Carolina etc. The last time Florida had a Democratic governor, it was more than 20 years ago. Florida International University political science professor Kathryn DePalo-Gould says Democrats get “more competitive when it comes to presidential elections”. "So Florida's considered a battleground state or a swing state because a lot of our statewide elections are decided within one to two percentage points," DePalo-Gould says. In the 2012 general election, former President Barack Obama won Florida by nearly one percentage point over Mitt Romney. But for state legislative races, DePalo-Gould says district boundaries often determine who wins. And in the 2016 presidential election, then-presidential candidate Donald Trump won Florida by a 1.2 percentage point over Hillary Clinton. Some of the swing states can really decide the result of the whole presidential election.

These are some of the things you could take note of when watching the US presidential election unfold.

14:19—Ada Jolly

A little on the Electoral College—how does the US president actually get elected?

The electoral system works in a systematic way to elect candidates into different offices. The system doesn’t just elect the president, it also elects Representatives and Senators at the state level and under. The House of Representatives and Senators are the legislative body which means they are responsible for creating laws.

For a Representative from the House of Representatives to be elected, they would have to be a resident of the state and district they are going to represent. They would also have to have been a citizen of the United States for a minimum of 7 years. They must also be at least 25 years old and need not belong to a specific political party. A Representative is the voice for a district in a state and will work to ensure that the people of their district are getting what they need. Representatives are also elected every 2 years by the people of that district and the membership of the House depends on the population of each state. The House holds the sole authority to impeach federal officials and is the larger of Congress’ two legislative bodies. ‘James Madison, a key architect of the Constitution, described the U.S. House of Representatives as a legislative body with “an immediate dependence on, and [an] intimate sympathy with, the people.”’ At the moment there are 435 total representatives in the House.

For a Senator to be elected, they would have to be a resident of the state they intend to serve and they have to be a minimum of 30 years. There are 2 Senators to represent each state which brings the total number of Senators to 100. Unlike the House, only a third of seats are filled with each general election. “Longer, overlapping Senate terms provide Congress with stability and continuity” and this helps the Senators to bring about more change during their terms. Senators are also elected by the citizens in their states just like Representatives.

For a president to be elected, they must go through an arduous process. The candidates have to have lived in the US for a minimum of 14 years, be at least 35 years old and they have to be natural-born American citizens. At some point, candidates start to drop out of the race when they lose support. After most candidates have dropped out, parties start to decide who of the remaining few from their party, they will be funding and who they are going to put forward to represent their party.

Contrary to popular belief, the president isn't actually elected by the people; they’re elected by the Electoral College. When the Constitution was being written, the Founding Fathers didn’t believe the voters could be trusted to pick what was best for them so the Electoral college was designed as a fail-safe. The Electoral College is made up of 100 Senators, 435 Representatives and 3 extra representatives from Washington D.C. Each state has the same number of votes as the number of Senators and Representatives combined. For example, California has 53 Representatives and 2 Senators so they have a total of 55 votes in the Electoral College. Most states go by a “winner takes all” vote, which means that if the majority of the people in California vote for one candidate then that candidate gets all 55 of California’s electoral votes. The only two states that do not follow this system are Maine and Nebraska. Maine has 2 Representatives and 2 Senators which makes a total of 4 Electoral votes. The two “Representative” votes go to whichever candidate wins each of the two districts respectively and the 2 “Senatorial” votes go to whoever wins most votes overall.

For a candidate to win they would have to secure a minimum of 270 electoral votes, which is one half plus one of the total votes.

To see my full article click on this link.

13:33—Latest Popular Polls

Biden (Harris): 51.6%

Trump (Pence): 43.0%

11:00—Haoyang Shi

With both major campaigns closing, the USA has ended one of the most unusual and difficult presidential campaigns in its history. Nearly 100 million Americans have already voted early, and the last weeks leading up to the election have been rife with controversy. The presidential debates were less than presidential, the Republican-majority Senate voted in Judge Amy Coney Barrett to fill the vacancy left by the late Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg just last Monday, and the president has made claims that he will not recognise voting beyond 3 November, questioned the validity of mail-in voting, and will not commit to a peaceful transfer of power. President Donald Trump's entire presidency has been turbulent, with increasingly partisan dealings in both domestic and foreign affairs.

[ink.] urges you to make your voice heard by advocating and voting responsibly for the future of the world's democracy.

08:00—Haoyang Shi

Welcome to the live blog for the US Presidential, Senatorial, and House elections on the 3rd of November, 2020. [ink.] will be posting regular, live updates on the situation and the current vote count. Stay tuned and enjoy.